KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

93%

91%

85%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

HRESNO 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.20u · HRES −4.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:47+00:00	67.8%	58.7%	90.1%	73.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	67.8%	58.7%	90.1%	73.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	67.8%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	67.8%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	67.8%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	67.8%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	91.4%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	91.4%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	91.4%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	91.4%	58.7%	86.8%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	91.4%	58.7%	86.3%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	91.5%	58.7%	86.3%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	91.5%	58.7%	86.3%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	92.7%	58.7%	86.3%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	92.7%	58.7%	86.3%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	92.7%	58.7%	86.3%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	92.7%	58.7%	86.3%	73.9%	86.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:11+00:00	97.5%	54.5%	90.6%	75.2%	87.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	97.5%	54.5%	94.1%	75.2%	87.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	97.5%	54.5%	94.1%	75.2%	87.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	97.5%	54.5%	94.1%	75.2%	87.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	98.9%	54.5%	94.1%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	98.9%	54.5%	94.1%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	98.9%	54.5%	94.1%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	98.9%	54.5%	94.1%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	98.9%	54.5%	94.1%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	98.9%	93.7%	97.5%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	98.9%	93.7%	97.5%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	98.9%	93.7%	97.5%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	98.4%	93.7%	97.5%	84.8%	91.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	98.4%	93.1%	97.5%	84.8%	91.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	79.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	77.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	74.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	75.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗