KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

93%

91%

85%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

HRESNO 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.20u · HRES −4.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	80.7%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	59.7%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	4.5%	63.9%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	68.9%	6.7%	11.2%	—	59.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	58.0%	50.7%	29.7%	—	44.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	66.3%	80.0%	81.6%	—	36.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	80.0%	57.9%	69.8%	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.0%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	78.7%	74.9%	32.2%	—	41.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	78.0%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	77.2%	81.6%	15.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	79.1%	79.8%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	81.6%	83.4%	40.9%	—	61.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	89.6%	82.3%	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	87.4%	86.9%	54.9%	—	72.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	92.4%	83.6%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	90.1%	88.2%	69.7%	0.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	92.0%	86.8%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	89.6%	86.9%	65.9%	—	71.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	82.5%	85.2%	0.0%	—	69.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	78.5%	89.0%	60.4%	0.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	87.4%	84.0%	56.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	87.6%	86.3%	72.4%	62.3%	69.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	88.5%	88.5%	72.0%	—	65.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	85.9%	88.0%	66.9%	58.0%	60.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	88.2%	88.9%	63.7%	—	63.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	90.5%	95.3%	74.4%	66.9%	73.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	97.1%	75.2%	—	66.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	79.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	77.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	74.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	75.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗