KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

67%

65%

49%

28%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

EPSNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.90u · EPS −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00	73.3%	37.3%	75.5%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	73.3%	37.3%	75.5%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	73.3%	37.3%	75.5%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00	73.3%	37.3%	75.5%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	73.3%	23.6%	70.0%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	73.3%	23.6%	70.0%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	73.3%	23.6%	70.0%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	73.3%	23.6%	70.0%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	63.9%	23.6%	69.9%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	63.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	63.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	63.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	63.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	63.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	63.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	19.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:03+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	69.9%	51.9%	66.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	69.9%	48.7%	66.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	80.6%	48.7%	66.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	80.6%	48.7%	66.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	73.9%	27.6%	80.6%	48.7%	66.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	65.2%	27.6%	80.6%	48.7%	66.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	65.2%	27.6%	80.6%	48.7%	66.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	77.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	77.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	75.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	73.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	71.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 74°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗