KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

67%

65%

49%

28%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

EPSNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.90u · EPS −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	65.3%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	40.3%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	1.4%	43.9%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	48.6%	2.1%	4.0%	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	36.4%	29.7%	14.0%	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	43.9%	60.6%	62.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	59.5%	34.5%	46.8%	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.0%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	56.6%	51.7%	13.8%	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	55.1%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	53.5%	59.6%	4.5%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	55.4%	56.3%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	58.2%	60.9%	17.8%	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	70.8%	58.5%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	66.1%	65.2%	27.1%	—	45.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	75.1%	58.9%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	69.7%	66.0%	39.8%	0.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	73.0%	62.5%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	66.9%	61.8%	34.1%	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	53.4%	57.8%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	46.5%	63.7%	27.0%	0.0%	30.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	59.5%	53.6%	22.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	58.7%	56.2%	36.5%	26.6%	33.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	59.0%	59.0%	34.9%	—	28.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	52.7%	56.7%	28.4%	21.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	55.6%	56.9%	24.2%	—	24.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	58.6%	72.0%	33.1%	25.6%	31.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	77.6%	32.5%	—	23.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	77.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	77.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	75.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	74.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	73.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	71.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 74°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗