KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

77%

77%

66%

62%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.1¢Risks 78.10u

HRESNO 21.9¢Risks 21.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.90u · HRES −21.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	53.5%	64.2%	79.3%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	53.5%	63.4%	79.3%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	53.5%	63.4%	79.3%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	80.5%	63.4%	79.0%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	80.5%	63.4%	79.0%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:49+00:00	80.5%	65.5%	79.0%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	80.5%	65.5%	79.0%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	80.5%	65.5%	78.4%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	80.5%	65.5%	78.4%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	80.5%	65.5%	78.4%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	80.5%	65.5%	78.4%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	81.9%	65.5%	78.4%	61.7%	76.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	81.9%	65.5%	78.4%	61.7%	76.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	81.9%	65.5%	78.4%	61.7%	76.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	81.9%	65.5%	78.4%	61.7%	76.9%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	81.9%	65.5%	77.3%	61.7%	76.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	81.9%	65.5%	77.3%	61.6%	76.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	81.9%	65.5%	77.3%	61.6%	76.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	94.6%	65.5%	77.3%	61.6%	76.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	94.6%	65.5%	77.3%	61.6%	76.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	94.6%	65.5%	77.3%	61.6%	76.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	94.6%	65.5%	77.3%	61.6%	76.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	80.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	75.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	73.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗