KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

77%

77%

66%

62%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.1¢Risks 78.10u

HRESNO 21.9¢Risks 21.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.90u · HRES −21.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	82.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	60.3%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	3.8%	31.1%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	68.3%	34.3%	7.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	81.6%	34.3%	22.6%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	81.1%	19.5%	52.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	76.4%	61.0%	34.5%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	0.9%	58.9%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	63.1%	71.4%	35.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	53.4%	54.3%	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	75.2%	70.9%	32.2%	—	37.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	72.1%	71.3%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	60.9%	74.9%	23.7%	—	35.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	63.9%	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	67.8%	72.9%	34.8%	—	39.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	68.3%	75.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	57.2%	74.1%	34.0%	—	41.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	59.5%	76.3%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	63.9%	78.7%	33.1%	33.1%	43.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	79.4%	0.0%	—	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	80.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	75.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	73.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗