WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
58%
EPS
40%
AIFS
40%
HRES
38%
ICON
21%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 39.7¢Risks 39.70u
VS
ICONNO 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.30u · ICON −60.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:0039.5%40.4%58.1%37.6%21.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:0039.5%40.4%58.1%37.6%21.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:0039.5%40.4%58.1%37.6%21.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:0039.5%40.4%58.1%37.6%21.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0039.5%40.4%58.1%37.6%21.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 258%74.6°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend55%74.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble40%72.7°F3.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single40%72.0°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES38%71.5°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON21%65.6°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗