KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

40%

40%

38%

21%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

ICONNO 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.30u · ICON −60.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	72.5%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	47.4%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	1.7%	20.3%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	54.9%	22.4%	3.9%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	70.3%	22.1%	13.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	69.1%	10.7%	37.2%	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	62.5%	45.2%	21.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	0.3%	42.7%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	46.7%	55.8%	21.3%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	59.6%	54.4%	18.4%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	55.4%	54.5%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	42.7%	58.2%	11.9%	—	20.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	45.3%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	49.0%	54.9%	19.0%	—	22.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	49.0%	57.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	36.9%	55.1%	17.6%	—	23.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	38.5%	57.4%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	42.4%	59.7%	16.2%	16.2%	23.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	60.0%	0.0%	—	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	74.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	72.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	71.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	65.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗