KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

66%

30%

30%

25%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

EPSNO 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.55u · EPS −54.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:56+00:00	86.1%	32.4%	56.3%	43.2%	66.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	86.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	66.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	86.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	66.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	86.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	66.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	14.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	14.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	14.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	14.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	14.1%	32.4%	63.1%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	14.1%	11.1%	62.6%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	14.1%	11.1%	62.6%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	14.1%	11.1%	62.6%	43.2%	78.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	84.6%	11.1%	62.6%	19.0%	78.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	84.5%	11.1%	62.6%	19.0%	78.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	70.7%	35.2%	79.6%	27.9%	58.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	70.7%	35.2%	80.3%	27.9%	58.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	70.7%	35.2%	80.3%	27.9%	58.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	70.7%	35.2%	80.3%	27.9%	58.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	70.7%	35.2%	80.3%	27.9%	58.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	72.9%	35.2%	80.3%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	72.9%	35.2%	80.3%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	72.9%	35.2%	80.3%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	72.9%	35.2%	80.3%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	72.9%	20.6%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	72.9%	20.6%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	72.9%	20.6%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	72.9%	20.6%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	69.2%	20.6%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	69.2%	20.6%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	79.7%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	26.1%	64.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	78.9%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	74.0%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	74.0%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	69.2%	17.5%	74.0%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	63.6%	17.5%	74.0%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	63.6%	17.5%	74.0%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	63.6%	17.5%	74.0%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	63.6%	17.5%	74.0%	21.2%	49.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00	67.2%	19.6%	61.7%	28.8%	34.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	67.2%	19.6%	61.7%	28.8%	34.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	67.2%	19.6%	67.2%	28.8%	34.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	67.2%	19.6%	67.2%	28.8%	34.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	67.2%	19.6%	67.2%	28.8%	34.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	66.3%	19.6%	67.2%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	66.3%	19.6%	67.2%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	66.3%	19.6%	67.2%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	66.3%	19.6%	67.2%	28.8%	28.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00	66.3%	24.9%	66.3%	30.4%	28.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	66.3%	24.9%	66.3%	30.4%	28.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	66.3%	24.9%	66.3%	30.4%	28.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	66.3%	24.9%	66.3%	30.4%	28.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	66.3%	24.6%	66.3%	30.4%	29.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	76.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	75.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	72.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	72.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗