KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

66%

30%

30%

25%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

EPSNO 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.55u · EPS −54.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	67.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	41.0%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.1%	15.9%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	47.9%	17.5%	2.6%	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	63.6%	17.0%	9.6%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	62.0%	7.6%	30.3%	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	54.8%	37.5%	15.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	0.1%	34.9%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	38.5%	47.5%	15.7%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	28.8%	29.6%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	50.9%	45.6%	13.1%	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	46.4%	45.5%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	33.9%	49.1%	7.9%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	36.1%	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	39.4%	45.1%	13.1%	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	39.1%	47.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	27.6%	44.9%	11.8%	—	16.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	28.8%	46.8%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	32.1%	48.9%	10.4%	10.4%	16.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	48.9%	0.0%	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	76.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	75.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	72.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	72.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗