KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

54%

33%

24%

24%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.8¢Risks 39.75u

HRESNO 60.2¢Risks 60.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.25u · HRES −60.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	81.4%	31.3%	86.1%	34.8%	19.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	81.2%	31.3%	86.0%	34.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:14+00:00	81.2%	35.8%	86.0%	34.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	81.2%	35.8%	86.0%	34.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	81.2%	35.8%	86.0%	34.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	81.2%	35.8%	88.4%	34.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	81.2%	35.8%	88.4%	34.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	81.2%	35.8%	88.4%	34.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	88.4%	34.9%	69.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	88.4%	34.9%	69.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	88.4%	34.9%	69.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	88.4%	34.9%	69.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	88.4%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	78.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	85.5%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	81.1%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	81.1%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	80.8%	35.8%	81.1%	46.9%	69.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	79.2%	35.8%	81.1%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	79.2%	35.8%	81.1%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	79.2%	35.8%	81.1%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	79.2%	35.8%	81.1%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	79.2%	35.8%	81.1%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	79.2%	52.5%	79.2%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	79.2%	52.5%	79.2%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	79.2%	52.5%	79.2%	36.9%	66.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	64.4%	52.5%	79.2%	37.1%	66.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	64.4%	52.5%	79.2%	36.9%	66.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	58.0%	35.4%	66.0%	27.9%	44.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	58.0%	29.5%	66.0%	27.9%	44.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	58.0%	29.5%	66.0%	27.9%	44.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	58.0%	29.5%	64.2%	27.9%	44.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00	58.0%	29.5%	64.2%	27.9%	44.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	58.0%	29.5%	64.2%	27.9%	44.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	64.2%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	64.2%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	64.2%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	64.2%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	64.2%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	63.3%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	58.7%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	58.7%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	57.2%	29.5%	58.7%	25.0%	33.5%
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	61.1%	29.5%	58.7%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	61.1%	29.5%	58.7%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	61.1%	29.5%	58.7%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	61.1%	29.5%	58.7%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	61.1%	29.5%	58.7%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	61.1%	32.8%	55.3%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	61.1%	32.8%	55.3%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	61.1%	32.8%	55.3%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	54.3%	32.8%	55.3%	24.2%	24.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	54.3%	32.8%	55.3%	24.2%	24.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	55%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	73.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	71.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	69.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗