KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

54%

33%

24%

24%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.8¢Risks 39.75u

HRESNO 60.2¢Risks 60.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.25u · HRES −60.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	1.3%	39.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	52.8%	60.4%	10.2%	—	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	44.9%	52.9%	29.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	18.4%	50.8%	14.6%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	39.2%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	24.2%	39.0%	14.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	2.0%	40.3%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	13.4%	40.1%	9.3%	—	13.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	10.3%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	13.1%	35.4%	7.7%	—	14.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	8.8%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	6.1%	36.4%	4.3%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	10.8%	37.0%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	8.6%	33.9%	8.2%	15.3%	9.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	35.3%	—	—	5.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	55%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	73.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	71.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	69.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗