KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

EPSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.80u · EPS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:06+00:00	37.0%	1.7%	38.4%	6.9%	5.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	37.1%	1.7%	38.4%	7.0%	6.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:14+00:00	37.1%	2.5%	38.4%	7.0%	6.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	37.1%	2.5%	38.4%	7.0%	6.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	37.1%	2.5%	38.4%	7.0%	6.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	37.1%	2.5%	43.0%	7.0%	6.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	37.1%	2.5%	43.0%	7.0%	6.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	37.1%	2.5%	43.0%	7.0%	6.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	43.0%	7.0%	42.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	43.0%	7.0%	42.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	43.0%	7.0%	42.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	43.0%	7.0%	42.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	43.0%	12.2%	42.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	33.8%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	37.7%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	31.2%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	31.2%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	36.4%	2.5%	31.2%	12.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	31.5%	2.5%	31.2%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	31.5%	2.5%	31.2%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	31.5%	2.5%	31.2%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	31.5%	2.5%	31.2%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	31.5%	2.5%	31.2%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	31.5%	1.5%	24.7%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	31.5%	1.5%	24.7%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	31.5%	1.5%	24.7%	8.2%	28.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	17.8%	1.5%	24.7%	8.5%	28.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	17.8%	1.5%	24.7%	8.2%	28.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	17.8%	2.0%	24.7%	8.2%	28.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	17.8%	2.0%	24.7%	8.2%	28.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	17.8%	2.0%	17.4%	8.2%	28.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	17.8%	2.0%	17.4%	8.2%	28.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	17.8%	2.0%	17.4%	8.2%	28.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	17.8%	2.0%	17.4%	8.2%	28.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	17.4%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	17.4%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	17.4%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	17.4%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	16.4%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	11.2%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.8%	13.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:57+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.6%	10.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.6%	10.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.6%	10.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	13.3%	2.0%	14.8%	3.6%	10.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	19%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	71.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	72.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗