KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

EPSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.80u · EPS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.0%	7.2%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	12.2%	16.6%	0.6%	—	7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	7.9%	11.3%	3.3%	—	4.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	1.3%	9.3%	0.8%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	5.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.8%	4.7%	0.7%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.0%	4.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.5%	4.3%	0.3%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.3%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.4%	2.8%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.2%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	2.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	2.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	19%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	71.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	72.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗