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KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
80%
EPS
79%
WN2
77%
ICON
48%
HRES
36%
Consensus
68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 58.1¢Risks 58.10u
VS
HRESNO 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.90u · HRES −41.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 35.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:0067.9%83.3%72.0%29.6%42.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:0067.9%83.3%72.0%29.6%42.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0067.9%83.3%75.2%29.6%42.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0067.9%83.3%75.2%29.6%42.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0067.9%83.3%75.2%29.6%42.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0080.3%83.3%75.2%29.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0080.3%83.3%75.2%29.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:0080.3%83.3%75.2%29.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0080.3%83.3%75.2%29.6%48.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:0080.3%78.6%77.4%35.9%48.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0080.3%78.6%77.4%35.9%48.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0080.3%78.6%77.4%35.9%48.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0080.3%78.6%77.4%35.9%48.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single80%69.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble79%67.8°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 277%68.3°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend63%67.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON48%65.3°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%63.7°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗