KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

77%

48%

36%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.1¢Risks 58.10u

HRESNO 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.90u · HRES −41.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	94.2%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	8.0%	68.2%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	15.8%	70.8%	32.3%	—	46.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	43.4%	68.3%	39.9%	—	37.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	69.1%	62.7%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	26.8%	51.6%	28.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.3%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	20.7%	58.3%	37.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	16.2%	59.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	33.8%	62.9%	46.5%	57.0%	29.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	—	66.6%	—	—	23.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	67.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	67.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	63.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗