KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

54%

52%

30%

19%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

HRESNO 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.25u · HRES −59.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	56.6%	71.9%	56.8%	18.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	56.6%	71.9%	57.6%	18.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	56.6%	71.9%	57.6%	18.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	56.6%	71.9%	57.6%	18.6%	37.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	60.4%	71.9%	57.6%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	60.4%	71.9%	57.6%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	60.4%	71.9%	57.6%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	60.4%	71.9%	57.6%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	60.4%	71.9%	57.6%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	60.4%	63.9%	70.4%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	60.4%	63.9%	70.4%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	60.4%	63.9%	70.4%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	46.0%	63.9%	70.4%	21.9%	34.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	46.0%	63.9%	70.4%	21.8%	34.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	46.0%	62.6%	70.4%	21.8%	34.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	46.0%	62.6%	70.4%	21.8%	34.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	46.0%	62.6%	70.4%	21.8%	34.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	46.0%	62.6%	59.6%	21.8%	34.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	46.0%	62.6%	59.6%	21.8%	34.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	46.0%	62.6%	59.6%	21.8%	34.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	59.6%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	59.6%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	59.6%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	59.6%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	59.6%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	53.9%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	53.9%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	47.6%	62.6%	53.9%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	52.4%	62.6%	53.9%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	52.4%	62.6%	53.9%	18.9%	30.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	52.4%	62.6%	53.9%	18.9%	30.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	68.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	67.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	67.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	64.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	62.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗