KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

54%

52%

30%

19%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

HRESNO 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.25u · HRES −59.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	89.3%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	4.0%	55.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	8.7%	57.7%	20.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	29.7%	54.4%	26.6%	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	12.9%	54.6%	47.7%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	15.4%	35.9%	16.4%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	0.1%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	10.8%	41.7%	23.2%	—	12.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	7.8%	42.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	19.6%	45.6%	29.9%	39.6%	16.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	49.1%	—	—	12.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	68.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	67.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	67.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	64.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	62.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗