KCLT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

56%

45%

36%

35%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.4¢Risks 46.45u

EPSNO 53.6¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.55u · EPS −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:57+00:00	28.3%	51.0%	44.9%	11.9%	6.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	28.3%	51.0%	44.9%	11.9%	6.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	28.3%	51.0%	44.9%	11.9%	6.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	28.3%	51.0%	44.9%	11.9%	6.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:30+00:00	40.4%	23.1%	44.6%	34.3%	56.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	40.4%	23.1%	42.2%	34.3%	56.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	40.4%	23.1%	42.2%	34.3%	56.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	40.4%	23.1%	42.2%	34.3%	56.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	41.9%	23.1%	42.2%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	41.9%	23.1%	42.2%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	41.9%	23.1%	42.2%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	41.9%	23.1%	42.2%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	41.9%	23.1%	42.2%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	41.9%	17.3%	51.7%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	41.9%	17.3%	51.7%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	41.9%	17.3%	51.7%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	50.7%	17.3%	51.7%	17.0%	42.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	50.7%	17.4%	51.7%	17.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	50.7%	15.2%	51.7%	17.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	50.7%	15.2%	51.7%	17.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	50.7%	15.2%	51.7%	17.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	50.7%	15.2%	54.3%	17.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	50.7%	15.2%	54.3%	17.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	50.7%	15.2%	54.3%	17.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	54.3%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	54.3%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	54.3%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	54.3%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	54.3%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	55.9%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	50.0%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	55.1%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	55.1%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	53.0%	15.2%	55.1%	25.7%	41.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	58.0%	15.2%	55.1%	25.7%	44.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	58.0%	15.2%	55.1%	25.7%	44.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	58.0%	15.2%	55.1%	25.7%	44.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	58.0%	15.2%	55.1%	25.7%	44.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00	58.0%	34.9%	55.8%	35.8%	44.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	58.0%	34.9%	55.8%	35.8%	44.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	58.0%	34.9%	55.8%	35.8%	44.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	58.0%	34.9%	55.8%	35.8%	44.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	71.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	71.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	45%	69.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	68.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗