KCLT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

56%

45%

36%

35%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.4¢Risks 46.45u

EPSNO 53.6¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.55u · EPS −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	23.7%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	41.6%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	33.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	29.8%	31.1%	9.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	17.9%	29.1%	8.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	16.4%	25.1%	22.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	24.2%	38.2%	28.1%	33.7%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	36.4%	—	—	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	71.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	71.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	45%	69.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	68.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗