KCLT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

37%

34%

29%

17%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.6¢Risks 34.55u

EPSNO 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.45u · EPS −65.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	22.7%	20.1%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	22.7%	20.1%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	22.7%	20.1%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	22.7%	20.1%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	41.7%	20.1%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	41.7%	20.1%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	41.7%	16.7%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	41.7%	16.7%	34.1%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	41.7%	16.7%	33.3%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00	41.7%	16.7%	33.3%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	41.7%	16.7%	33.3%	9.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	33.3%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	33.3%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	33.3%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	33.3%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	33.3%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	37.0%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	37.0%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	36.4%	16.7%	37.0%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	33.8%	16.7%	37.0%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	33.8%	16.7%	37.0%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	33.8%	16.7%	37.0%	28.8%	52.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	33.8%	16.7%	37.0%	28.8%	52.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	72.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	69.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	67.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	67.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗