KCLT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

37%

34%

29%

17%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.6¢Risks 34.55u

EPSNO 65.5¢Risks 65.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.45u · EPS −65.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	19.3%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	35.4%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.0%	27.1%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	24.1%	25.2%	6.9%	—	18.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	13.6%	23.2%	5.9%	—	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	12.2%	19.5%	16.9%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	18.4%	30.9%	21.8%	26.8%	20.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	29.0%	—	—	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	72.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	69.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	67.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	67.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗