KCMH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≤ 52°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

39%

21%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.7¢Risks 26.65u

EPSNO 73.4¢Risks 73.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.35u · EPS −73.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	11.3%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	0.0%	7.2%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	49.3%	18.4%	19.9%	—	14.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	56.6%	7.1%	—	24.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	50.0%	81.6%	12.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	32.3%	73.9%	42.1%	—	26.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	35.6%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	5.6%	72.1%	23.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	27.4%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	21.4%	61.3%	48.2%	—	43.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	19.0%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	22.3%	36.4%	40.9%	—	51.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	30.9%	30.9%	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	39.4%	26.3%	20.3%	—	46.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	17.7%	25.7%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	22.7%	27.6%	23.5%	—	39.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	38.5%	39.5%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	24.7%	39.2%	44.5%	68.9%	53.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	35.7%	38.9%	81.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	32.0%	31.0%	39.6%	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	33.6%	33.6%	35.9%	—	69.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	38.9%	35.4%	30.9%	69.2%	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	32.5%	37.3%	47.4%	—	47.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	33.1%	24.0%	33.1%	63.2%	47.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	37.7%	23.2%	36.3%	—	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	30.5%	15.4%	30.5%	62.8%	47.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	45.5%	18.1%	29.8%	—	48.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	45.3%	11.7%	40.6%	46.8%	43.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	28.1%	14.1%	35.5%	—	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	50%	52.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	39%	53.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1552
AIFS Single	21%	55.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0437
National Blend	13%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0174
NWS forecast	12%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0137
WeatherNext 2	8%	56.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0072
IFS Ensemble	3%	58.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0011

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 52°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261017-TMAX-LE52
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Columbus stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗