WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
83%
HRES
78%
EPS
74%
ICON
73%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 83.5¢Risks 83.50u
VS
ICONNO 16.5¢Risks 16.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.50u · ICON −16.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:56+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T04:01:33+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:28+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T04:01:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-10-12T04:01:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T07:48:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:56+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T04:01:33+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:28+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00IFS HRES: 78.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-12T04:01:33+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:28+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00ICON: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:0010-11 07:3210-12 07:4810-12 14:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:0023.6%77.3%85.0%87.5%—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:0023.6%77.3%85.0%87.5%—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:0023.6%77.3%85.0%87.5%—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:0023.6%77.3%85.0%87.5%—
2026-10-11T10:33:56+00:0023.6%77.3%85.0%87.5%—
2026-10-12T04:01:33+00:0092.9%61.3%88.7%88.2%72.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:0092.9%61.3%88.7%88.2%72.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:0092.9%61.3%91.8%88.2%72.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:0092.9%61.3%91.8%88.2%72.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:0092.9%61.3%91.8%88.2%72.2%
2026-10-12T07:48:28+00:0088.6%61.3%91.8%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:0088.6%61.3%91.8%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:0088.6%61.3%91.8%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:0088.6%61.3%91.8%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:0088.6%61.3%91.8%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:0088.6%61.3%94.1%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:0088.6%74.7%94.1%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:0088.6%74.7%94.1%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:0082.7%74.7%94.1%78.2%73.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:0082.7%74.3%94.0%78.2%73.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%65.6°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0036
AIFS Single83%63.5°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.0299
IFS HRES78%63.6°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0475
IFS Ensemble74%61.7°F4.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.0660
ICON73%62.8°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.0729
National Blend59%60.0°F6.7°F2026-10-12 06:000.1689
NWS forecast53%59.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 02:000.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗