KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

83%

78%

74%

73%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.5¢Risks 83.50u

ICONNO 16.5¢Risks 16.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.50u · ICON −16.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	2.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	5.1%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	59.1%	18.0%	38.2%	—	61.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	55.8%	56.6%	60.8%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	73.0%	63.5%	73.0%	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	84.1%	75.8%	67.0%	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	3.8%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	83.2%	78.7%	71.4%	—	59.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	66.6%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	81.0%	71.6%	60.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	81.6%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	67.8%	71.0%	67.8%	—	43.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	81.7%	69.9%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	81.7%	70.4%	66.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	79.6%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	82.4%	73.2%	72.4%	—	59.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	87.4%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	87.5%	52.2%	81.0%	—	48.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	83.9%	50.0%	0.1%	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	86.0%	59.2%	80.1%	—	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	85.5%	69.6%	81.7%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	86.3%	77.3%	87.6%	48.8%	70.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	85.0%	70.9%	80.9%	—	69.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	83.5%	72.7%	80.9%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	90.8%	75.8%	79.9%	—	70.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	94.5%	82.8%	86.2%	74.4%	75.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	93.5%	88.0%	85.6%	—	66.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	93.4%	90.4%	72.4%	73.7%	68.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	98.6%	94.2%	89.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	65.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0036
AIFS Single	83%	63.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0299
IFS HRES	78%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0475
IFS Ensemble	74%	61.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0660
ICON	73%	62.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0729
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗