KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

68%

50%

34%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.00u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 43.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.00u · ICON −43.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:23+00:00	64.7%	51.6%	81.5%	62.6%	57.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	64.7%	47.6%	81.5%	62.6%	57.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00	64.7%	47.6%	80.3%	62.6%	57.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	64.7%	47.6%	80.3%	62.6%	57.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	64.7%	47.6%	80.3%	62.6%	57.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	64.7%	47.6%	80.3%	62.6%	57.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	65.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T04:16:01+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	80.9%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	84.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	84.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	84.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	71.4%	47.6%	84.3%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:38+00:00	66.6%	47.6%	84.3%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	66.6%	47.6%	84.3%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	66.6%	47.6%	84.3%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	66.6%	47.6%	84.3%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	66.6%	57.3%	68.8%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	66.6%	57.3%	68.8%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	66.6%	57.3%	68.8%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	66.6%	57.3%	68.8%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	64.2%	57.3%	68.7%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	64.2%	58.3%	68.7%	57.6%	78.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:51+00:00	54.8%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	76.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	54.8%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	76.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	54.8%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	76.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	54.8%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	76.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	54.8%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	76.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	54.8%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	76.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	56.9%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	56.9%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	56.9%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	56.9%	58.3%	73.6%	54.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:31+00:00	56.9%	58.3%	73.6%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:53+00:00	56.9%	35.3%	65.7%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	56.9%	35.3%	65.7%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	56.9%	35.3%	65.7%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	63.6%	35.3%	65.7%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	63.6%	35.3%	65.7%	39.0%	71.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	64.4%	39.3%	62.6%	41.3%	55.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	64.4%	39.3%	62.6%	41.3%	55.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	64.4%	39.3%	63.7%	41.3%	55.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	64.4%	39.3%	63.7%	41.3%	55.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	64.4%	39.3%	63.7%	41.3%	55.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:50+00:00	62.8%	39.3%	63.7%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	62.8%	39.3%	63.7%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	62.8%	39.3%	63.7%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	62.8%	39.3%	63.7%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00	62.8%	39.3%	63.7%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	62.8%	39.3%	67.2%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	62.8%	48.8%	67.2%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00	62.8%	48.8%	67.2%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	71.3%	48.8%	67.2%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	71.3%	48.8%	67.2%	31.9%	63.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:14+00:00	60.1%	52.4%	71.4%	39.4%	62.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	60.1%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	62.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	60.1%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	62.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	60.1%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	62.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	62.5%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	62.5%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	62.5%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	62.5%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	62.5%	52.4%	68.3%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	62.5%	51.3%	63.9%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	62.5%	51.3%	63.9%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	62.5%	51.3%	63.9%	39.4%	60.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	67.1%	51.3%	63.9%	33.0%	60.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	67.1%	51.3%	63.9%	33.0%	60.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	75.4%	53.2%	41.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	75.4%	53.2%	41.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	53.2%	41.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	53.2%	41.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	53.2%	41.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	53.2%	41.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	74.3%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	70.9%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	79.5%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	79.5%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	79.5%	50.0%	34.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	72.0%	67.8%	79.5%	50.0%	34.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
AIFS Single	72%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0784
IFS Ensemble	68%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1037
National Blend	67%	62.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1076
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	50%	61.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
ICON	34%	60.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4290

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗