KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

68%

50%

34%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.00u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 43.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.00u · ICON −43.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	1.7%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	38.2%	7.4%	20.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	34.3%	35.0%	39.2%	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	51.5%	40.9%	51.5%	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	65.5%	54.0%	43.6%	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.8%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	63.1%	56.6%	47.5%	—	35.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	41.5%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	58.7%	46.5%	34.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	58.9%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	40.9%	44.5%	40.9%	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	57.5%	42.5%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	56.8%	42.3%	37.6%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	53.0%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	56.1%	43.9%	42.8%	—	29.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	63.5%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	62.9%	22.1%	52.2%	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	55.6%	19.8%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	58.1%	26.0%	48.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	56.0%	34.7%	50.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	56.2%	42.6%	58.7%	16.6%	34.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	52.6%	33.7%	46.1%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	48.7%	34.3%	44.6%	15.7%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	61.0%	36.3%	41.7%	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	69.5%	44.2%	50.0%	33.1%	34.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	64.8%	51.5%	47.0%	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	62.4%	54.7%	27.6%	29.0%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	83.0%	63.0%	50.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
AIFS Single	72%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0784
IFS Ensemble	68%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1037
National Blend	67%	62.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1076
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	50%	61.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
ICON	34%	60.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4290

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗