KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

42%

39%

27%

21%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.1¢Risks 34.15u

EPSNO 65.9¢Risks 65.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.85u · EPS −65.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:35+00:00	48.4%	41.7%	50.0%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	48.4%	41.7%	50.0%	43.9%	67.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	48.4%	41.7%	55.8%	43.9%	67.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	48.4%	41.7%	55.8%	43.9%	67.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	48.4%	41.7%	55.8%	43.9%	67.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	43.9%	64.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	43.9%	64.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	43.9%	64.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	43.9%	64.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	40.6%	64.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	40.4%	64.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	40.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	50.0%	41.7%	55.8%	40.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	38.9%	41.7%	55.8%	40.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	38.9%	41.7%	55.8%	40.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	46.5%	20.9%	44.7%	24.8%	55.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	46.5%	20.9%	44.7%	24.8%	55.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	46.5%	20.9%	44.7%	24.8%	55.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	46.5%	20.9%	40.4%	24.8%	55.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	46.5%	20.9%	40.4%	24.8%	55.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	46.5%	20.9%	40.4%	24.8%	55.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	40.4%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	40.4%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	40.4%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	40.4%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	40.4%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	41.5%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	41.5%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	41.5%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	41.5%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	41.5%	26.8%	39.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	47.4%	20.9%	41.5%	26.8%	39.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
AIFS Single	47%	63.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2767
WeatherNext 2	42%	62.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3422
ICON	39%	62.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3672
National Blend	32%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.4665
IFS HRES	27%	60.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.5358
IFS Ensemble	21%	60.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.6257

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗