KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

42%

39%

27%

21%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.1¢Risks 34.15u

EPSNO 65.9¢Risks 65.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.85u · EPS −65.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	25.7%	3.6%	11.9%	—	28.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	22.1%	22.6%	26.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	36.5%	27.0%	36.5%	—	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	50.0%	38.2%	28.8%	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.2%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	46.7%	40.1%	31.5%	—	21.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	26.0%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	41.3%	29.9%	20.2%	—	9.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	41.1%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	24.4%	27.4%	24.4%	—	9.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	38.8%	25.3%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	37.6%	24.7%	21.0%	—	11.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	33.5%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	35.9%	25.1%	24.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	42.6%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	41.3%	9.4%	31.1%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	33.6%	7.9%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	35.2%	11.0%	27.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	32.5%	16.0%	27.3%	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	32.0%	20.8%	34.2%	5.5%	15.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	28.0%	14.3%	22.8%	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	24.0%	14.1%	21.0%	4.6%	10.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	33.8%	14.7%	18.2%	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	41.4%	19.1%	23.4%	12.2%	13.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	35.2%	23.6%	20.2%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	31.7%	25.0%	8.3%	8.9%	6.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	30.9%	20.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
AIFS Single	47%	63.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2767
WeatherNext 2	42%	62.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3422
ICON	39%	62.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3672
National Blend	32%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.4665
IFS HRES	27%	60.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.5358
IFS Ensemble	21%	60.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.6257

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗