KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

49%

25%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.45u · EPS −68.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	39.2%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	4.6%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	70.6%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	47.2%	40.3%	1.4%	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	21.0%	37.8%	3.3%	—	10.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	12.2%	34.4%	1.5%	—	11.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	11.1%	23.0%	3.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	3.8%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	12.0%	4.1%	2.0%	—	16.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	28.1%	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	46.5%	2.5%	2.4%	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	50.9%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	63.6%	3.0%	2.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	70.8%	4.8%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	78.2%	6.8%	2.0%	—	11.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	57.0%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	67.9%	6.7%	0.7%	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	74.7%	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	59.7%	10.9%	0.2%	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	62.2%	10.2%	0.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	68.0%	6.5%	0.2%	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	57.2%	4.5%	0.2%	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	43.8%	2.0%	0.1%	90.5%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	53.9%	1.4%	0.1%	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.7%	0.9%	0.1%	88.0%	4.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	44.4%	0.7%	0.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	35.8%	0.2%	0.0%	87.0%	2.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	47.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	48.4%	0.1%	0.9%	78.6%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	31.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3982
ICON	49%	32.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2381
WeatherNext 2	25%	34.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	8%	36.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0058
NWS forecast	2%	37.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	<1%	37.6°F	1.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Columbus freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗