KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

56%

52%

52%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.5¢Risks 70.50u

HRESNO 29.5¢Risks 29.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.50u · HRES −29.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	82.8%	37.5%	84.8%	47.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	82.8%	37.5%	84.8%	47.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	82.8%	37.5%	84.3%	47.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	82.8%	37.5%	84.3%	47.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	82.8%	37.5%	84.3%	47.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00	91.7%	37.5%	84.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	91.7%	37.5%	84.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	91.7%	37.5%	84.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	91.7%	37.5%	84.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00	91.7%	37.5%	84.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	91.7%	37.5%	88.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	91.7%	50.0%	88.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00	91.7%	50.0%	88.3%	50.7%	83.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	84.8%	50.0%	88.3%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	84.8%	50.0%	88.3%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00	84.8%	54.6%	88.3%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	84.8%	54.6%	88.3%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	84.8%	54.6%	91.0%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	84.8%	54.6%	91.0%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	84.8%	54.6%	91.0%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	84.8%	54.6%	91.0%	50.7%	83.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	91.1%	54.6%	91.0%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	91.1%	54.6%	91.0%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	91.1%	54.6%	91.0%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	91.1%	54.6%	91.0%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	91.1%	54.6%	90.1%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	91.2%	54.6%	90.1%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	91.2%	54.6%	90.1%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	89.1%	54.6%	90.1%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	89.1%	54.6%	90.1%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	89.1%	54.6%	90.1%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	89.1%	54.6%	90.1%	61.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	84.4%	52.7%	93.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	93.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	93.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	84.4%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	90.7%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	85.0%	48.7%	92.2%	44.2%	51.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	85.7%	48.7%	92.2%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	85.7%	48.7%	92.2%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	85.7%	48.7%	92.2%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	85.7%	48.7%	92.2%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	85.7%	48.7%	92.2%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	90.4%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	90.4%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	90.4%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	83.3%	50.0%	90.4%	47.9%	65.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	83.3%	50.0%	90.4%	47.9%	66.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	90.4%	47.9%	66.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	90.4%	47.9%	66.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	90.4%	47.9%	66.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	84.9%	47.9%	66.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	84.9%	47.9%	66.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	84.9%	47.9%	66.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	84.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	84.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	84.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	84.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	84.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	87.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	87.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	85.7%	52.4%	87.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	88.9%	52.4%	87.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	88.9%	52.4%	87.9%	52.1%	55.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	88.9%	52.4%	87.9%	52.1%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	72.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	56%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	67.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗