KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

56%

52%

52%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.5¢Risks 70.50u

HRESNO 29.5¢Risks 29.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.50u · HRES −29.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	45.6%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	27.8%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	4.0%	54.0%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	59.7%	9.3%	12.2%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	67.7%	47.8%	21.5%	—	39.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	67.0%	50.0%	46.2%	—	29.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	73.9%	32.3%	30.9%	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	2.0%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	59.9%	42.5%	26.5%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	58.5%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.9%	74.5%	30.7%	34.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	81.6%	41.1%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	79.1%	41.8%	44.5%	—	45.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	63.9%	35.2%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	67.8%	45.1%	33.0%	—	40.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	54.0%	32.6%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	34.0%	30.3%	0.0%	32.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	51.1%	37.5%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	56.5%	37.1%	33.1%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	57.8%	34.6%	0.1%	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	54.6%	38.5%	26.0%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	67.5%	35.9%	24.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	80.1%	41.3%	33.1%	50.0%	30.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	77.2%	41.0%	33.7%	—	26.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	71.6%	43.3%	29.5%	50.0%	30.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	78.9%	50.0%	39.0%	—	35.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	83.7%	50.0%	45.7%	70.7%	40.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	53.0%	31.1%	—	22.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	72.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	56%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	67.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗