KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

76%

41%

26%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

EPSNO 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.30u · EPS −47.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:51+00:00	79.3%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	68.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	79.3%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	68.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	79.3%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	68.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	79.3%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	68.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	79.3%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	68.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	79.3%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	68.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	80.7%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	76.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	80.7%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	76.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	80.7%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	76.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	80.7%	40.4%	88.6%	51.3%	76.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:00	80.7%	40.4%	88.6%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:53+00:00	80.7%	21.5%	85.7%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	80.7%	21.5%	85.7%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	80.7%	21.5%	85.7%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	73.9%	21.5%	85.7%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	74.2%	21.9%	85.3%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	74.2%	26.1%	85.3%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	74.2%	26.1%	85.3%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	74.2%	26.1%	85.3%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	74.2%	26.1%	80.5%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	74.2%	26.1%	80.5%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	74.2%	26.1%	80.5%	48.8%	76.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	76.5%	26.1%	80.5%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	76.5%	26.1%	80.5%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	76.5%	26.1%	80.5%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	76.5%	26.1%	80.5%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	76.5%	26.1%	80.5%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	76.5%	26.2%	79.2%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	76.5%	26.2%	79.2%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	76.5%	26.2%	79.2%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	77.7%	26.2%	79.2%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	77.7%	26.2%	79.2%	41.0%	75.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	77.7%	26.2%	79.2%	41.0%	75.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0433
AIFS Single	78%	72.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0497
ICON	76%	73.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0595
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3181
IFS HRES	41%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3481
IFS Ensemble	26%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5446

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗