KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

76%

41%

26%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

EPSNO 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.30u · EPS −47.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	39.5%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	22.6%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	2.8%	47.3%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	52.8%	6.7%	9.0%	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	60.8%	40.6%	16.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	59.8%	42.4%	38.7%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	67.0%	25.5%	24.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	1.2%	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	51.7%	34.5%	20.1%	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	50.0%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	67.0%	23.4%	26.9%	—	35.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	75.0%	32.6%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	71.8%	33.0%	35.6%	—	36.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	54.7%	26.9%	—	—	34.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	58.7%	35.7%	24.7%	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	44.0%	24.1%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	39.8%	25.1%	21.9%	0.0%	23.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	40.6%	27.9%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	45.6%	27.3%	23.8%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	46.6%	24.9%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	43.0%	28.0%	17.5%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	56.0%	25.3%	16.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	70.2%	29.8%	22.7%	37.7%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	66.3%	29.1%	22.8%	—	17.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	59.3%	30.7%	19.1%	36.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	67.5%	36.3%	26.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	73.2%	35.8%	31.8%	57.2%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	38.1%	19.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	68.3%	33.1%	16.1%	54.7%	21.4%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	75.9%	48.4%	38.6%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0433
AIFS Single	78%	72.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0497
ICON	76%	73.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0595
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3181
IFS HRES	41%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3481
IFS Ensemble	26%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5446

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗