KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

62%

24%

22%

20%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.55u

EPSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.45u · EPS −54.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:14+00:00	73.4%	15.0%	71.2%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	73.4%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	73.4%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	73.4%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	79.0%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	79.0%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	79.0%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	79.0%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	79.0%	15.0%	73.7%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	79.0%	25.2%	77.4%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	79.0%	25.2%	77.4%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	79.0%	25.2%	77.4%	41.1%	63.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	77.7%	25.2%	77.4%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	77.8%	25.2%	77.4%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	77.8%	24.1%	77.4%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	77.8%	24.1%	77.4%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	77.8%	24.1%	77.4%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:22+00:00	77.8%	24.1%	73.2%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	77.8%	24.1%	73.2%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	77.8%	24.1%	73.2%	37.4%	63.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	73.2%	37.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	73.2%	37.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	73.2%	37.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	73.2%	37.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	73.2%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	77.1%	24.1%	77.4%	33.0%	67.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	75.1%	24.1%	77.4%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	75.1%	23.4%	80.5%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	75.1%	23.4%	80.5%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	75.1%	23.4%	80.5%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	66.3%	23.4%	80.5%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	66.3%	23.8%	80.5%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	66.3%	23.4%	80.5%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	66.3%	23.4%	80.5%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	66.3%	23.4%	78.8%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	66.3%	23.4%	78.8%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	66.3%	23.4%	78.8%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	66.3%	23.4%	78.8%	26.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	78.8%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	78.8%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	78.8%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	78.8%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	71.4%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	73.3%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	73.3%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	73.3%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	61.9%	23.4%	73.3%	23.7%	28.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	64.4%	23.4%	73.3%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	64.4%	23.4%	73.3%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	64.4%	23.4%	73.3%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	64.4%	23.4%	73.3%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	64.4%	17.0%	69.7%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	64.4%	17.0%	69.7%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	64.4%	17.0%	69.7%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	64.4%	17.0%	69.7%	20.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	60.7%	17.5%	69.7%	20.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	67.7%	20.1%	55.5%	22.5%	24.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	67.7%	20.1%	55.5%	22.5%	24.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	67.7%	20.1%	62.1%	22.5%	24.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	67.7%	20.1%	62.1%	22.5%	24.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	67.7%	20.1%	62.1%	22.5%	24.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	71.0%	20.1%	62.1%	22.5%	23.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	71.0%	20.1%	62.1%	22.5%	23.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	71.0%	20.1%	62.1%	22.5%	23.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	71.0%	20.1%	62.1%	22.5%	23.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	72.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	0.5041
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	0.3856
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	33%	70.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	0.1076
ICON	24%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	22%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.0506
IFS Ensemble	20%	67.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0404

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗