KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

62%

24%

22%

20%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.55u

EPSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.45u · EPS −54.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	1.2%	34.2%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	38.9%	3.2%	4.5%	—	26.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	46.4%	27.2%	9.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	44.7%	28.3%	25.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	51.6%	14.5%	13.6%	—	16.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	0.4%	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	35.3%	20.7%	10.4%	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	33.4%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	50.0%	12.2%	14.6%	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	58.9%	18.4%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	54.6%	18.4%	20.3%	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	36.1%	13.7%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	39.4%	19.7%	12.1%	—	16.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	25.7%	11.4%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	21.9%	11.8%	9.8%	0.0%	10.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	22.0%	13.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	25.5%	12.5%	10.4%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	25.8%	10.7%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	22.4%	12.1%	6.5%	0.0%	6.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	32.5%	10.2%	5.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	46.3%	12.4%	8.5%	17.4%	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	41.0%	11.5%	8.2%	—	5.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	33.1%	12.0%	6.1%	15.7%	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	40.3%	14.7%	9.2%	—	7.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	45.7%	13.8%	11.5%	29.3%	8.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	14.4%	5.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	37.6%	11.0%	3.7%	25.0%	5.7%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	45.1%	19.2%	13.2%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	72.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	0.5041
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	0.3856
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	33%	70.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	0.1076
ICON	24%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	22%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.0506
IFS Ensemble	20%	67.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0404

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗