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KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
AIFS
95%
EPS
74%
ICON
60%
HRES
54%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 75.3¢Risks 75.30u
VS
HRESNO 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.70u · HRES −24.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 53.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:0091.3%73.7%96.7%49.0%70.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0091.3%73.7%96.7%49.0%70.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:0091.3%73.7%96.7%49.0%70.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:0091.3%73.7%95.9%49.0%70.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0091.3%73.7%95.9%49.0%70.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:0091.3%73.7%95.9%49.0%70.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0092.1%73.7%95.9%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:0092.1%73.7%95.9%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:0092.1%73.7%95.9%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:0092.1%73.7%95.9%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:0092.1%73.7%95.9%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0092.1%73.7%96.7%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:0092.1%73.7%96.7%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:0092.1%73.7%96.7%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:0094.6%73.7%96.7%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0094.6%73.7%96.7%53.9%60.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0094.6%73.7%96.7%53.9%60.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%71.2°F3.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single95%72.0°F4.0°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%67.5°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON60%66.4°F3.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend59%66.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS HRES54%65.9°F4.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗