KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

74%

60%

54%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.3¢Risks 75.30u

HRESNO 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.70u · HRES −24.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	27.3%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	40.1%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	36.1%	57.4%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	78.6%	61.8%	31.1%	—	45.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	82.5%	47.8%	42.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	84.9%	51.5%	73.0%	—	61.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	84.1%	50.0%	59.5%	—	59.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	4.5%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	67.8%	44.2%	54.2%	—	60.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	19.0%	44.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	38.8%	51.7%	43.0%	—	51.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	50.9%	47.3%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	42.7%	41.8%	28.9%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	52.8%	38.8%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	65.2%	48.0%	30.4%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	54.0%	60.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	51.0%	54.1%	19.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	61.5%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	72.7%	69.9%	24.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	73.3%	68.5%	0.1%	—	40.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	63.7%	72.0%	31.0%	0.0%	40.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	81.7%	74.7%	40.5%	—	45.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	86.3%	76.4%	50.0%	77.3%	47.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	76.2%	46.1%	—	37.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	67.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	66.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗