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KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
96%
AIFS
92%
ICON
83%
EPS
73%
HRES
54%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 75.2¢Risks 75.25u
VS
HRESNO 24.8¢Risks 24.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.75u · HRES −24.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 92.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:0097.0%75.5%96.0%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:0097.0%70.1%96.0%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:0097.0%70.1%96.0%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:0096.2%70.1%95.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:0096.2%70.1%95.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:0096.2%72.9%95.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:0096.2%72.9%95.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:0096.2%72.9%96.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:0096.2%72.9%96.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:0096.2%72.9%96.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:0096.2%72.9%96.8%52.5%32.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:0094.9%72.9%96.8%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:0094.9%72.9%96.8%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:0094.9%72.9%96.8%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:0094.9%72.9%96.8%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:0094.9%72.9%96.2%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:0094.8%72.9%96.2%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:0094.8%72.9%96.2%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:0092.2%72.9%96.2%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:0092.2%72.9%96.2%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:0092.2%72.9%96.2%54.3%83.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:0092.2%72.9%96.2%54.3%83.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 296%75.5°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single92%74.6°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON83%76.1°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble73%68.7°F3.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES54%67.2°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend54%67.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗