KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

83%

73%

54%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.2¢Risks 75.25u

HRESNO 24.8¢Risks 24.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.75u · HRES −24.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	6.2%	40.0%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	50.0%	38.2%	—	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	50.7%	52.9%	49.3%	—	49.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	35.1%	45.4%	47.7%	—	53.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	37.5%	54.0%	43.6%	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	1.5%	42.7%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	25.8%	36.1%	30.0%	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	19.6%	39.0%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	32.2%	34.6%	28.4%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.7%	58.9%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	27.4%	40.0%	7.6%	—	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	44.3%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	53.9%	42.3%	27.1%	—	34.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	46.0%	44.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	39.8%	55.1%	28.5%	—	31.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	54.2%	59.5%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	63.9%	59.7%	40.3%	62.9%	39.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	53.4%	0.0%	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	75.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	74.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	83%	76.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	68.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	67.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗