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KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
94%
WN2
90%
EPS
58%
HRES
40%
ICON
26%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u
VS
ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00ICON: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:0093.7%58.5%89.9%40.0%25.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:0093.7%58.5%89.9%40.0%25.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:0093.7%58.5%89.9%40.0%25.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:0093.7%58.5%89.9%40.0%25.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:0093.7%58.5%89.9%40.0%25.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single94%77.1°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 290%75.4°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%69.4°F4.2°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend55%69.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES40%66.9°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON26%62.0°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗