KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

58%

40%

26%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	71.1%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	3.0%	27.7%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	70.2%	36.2%	25.7%	—	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	36.4%	38.5%	35.0%	—	35.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	22.2%	30.9%	33.0%	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	23.6%	38.2%	28.8%	—	30.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.5%	27.7%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	14.3%	21.9%	17.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	9.9%	23.9%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	18.4%	20.2%	15.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	27.1%	41.1%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	14.4%	23.7%	2.9%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	26.9%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	34.8%	24.7%	13.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	27.4%	25.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	21.9%	34.9%	13.9%	—	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	33.5%	38.5%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	42.4%	38.2%	21.3%	41.3%	20.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	31.5%	0.0%	—	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	77.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	75.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	69.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	66.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	62.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗