KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

54%

23%

17%

15%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

HRESNO 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.20u · HRES −64.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	60.2%	17.4%	64.2%	22.4%	33.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	60.2%	17.4%	64.2%	22.4%	33.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	60.2%	17.4%	61.8%	22.4%	33.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	60.2%	17.4%	61.8%	22.4%	33.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	60.2%	17.4%	61.8%	22.4%	33.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	60.2%	17.4%	61.8%	22.4%	33.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	61.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	61.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	61.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	61.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	56.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	56.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	56.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	55.1%	17.4%	56.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	54.4%	17.4%	56.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	54.4%	17.4%	56.8%	14.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	54.4%	17.4%	56.8%	14.8%	23.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	71.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	23%	65.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	67.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗