KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

54%

23%

17%

15%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

HRESNO 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.20u · HRES −64.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	2.6%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	0.8%	20.3%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	16.2%	52.1%	12.6%	—	24.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	10.9%	31.7%	16.1%	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	4.4%	25.1%	6.8%	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	20.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	12.7%	21.2%	2.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	12.2%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	10.8%	25.8%	4.7%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	5.6%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	11.3%	19.0%	3.4%	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	7.1%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	4.6%	16.6%	4.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	11.8%	15.9%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	5.6%	15.3%	4.2%	21.0%	1.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	13.5%	—	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	71.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	23%	65.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	67.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗