KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

80%

52%

48%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.5¢Risks 72.50u

HRESNO 27.5¢Risks 27.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.50u · HRES −27.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	74.0%	31.3%	81.6%	31.0%	24.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	74.0%	31.3%	81.6%	31.0%	24.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	74.0%	31.3%	81.6%	31.0%	24.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	74.0%	31.3%	81.6%	31.0%	24.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	81.6%	31.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	78.8%	31.3%	81.6%	31.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	78.8%	27.9%	81.6%	31.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	78.8%	27.9%	81.6%	31.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	78.8%	27.9%	83.1%	31.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	78.8%	27.9%	83.1%	31.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	78.8%	27.9%	83.1%	31.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	83.1%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	83.1%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	83.1%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	83.1%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	83.1%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	87.6%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	87.6%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	87.6%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	87.6%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	87.6%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	87.6%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	75.7%	27.9%	87.6%	29.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	70.4%	25.5%	95.0%	37.5%	72.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	70.4%	25.5%	95.0%	37.5%	72.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	70.4%	25.5%	95.0%	37.5%	72.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	70.4%	25.5%	96.4%	37.5%	72.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	70.4%	25.5%	96.4%	37.5%	72.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	70.4%	25.5%	96.4%	37.5%	72.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	96.4%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	96.4%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	96.4%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	96.4%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	96.4%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	72.3%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	97.0%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	95.3%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	95.3%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	77.6%	25.5%	95.3%	38.7%	69.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	87.6%	25.5%	95.3%	38.7%	80.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	87.6%	25.5%	95.3%	38.7%	80.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	87.6%	25.5%	95.3%	38.7%	80.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	87.6%	25.5%	95.3%	38.7%	80.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	87.6%	52.2%	97.1%	47.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	87.6%	52.2%	97.1%	47.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	87.6%	52.2%	97.1%	47.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	87.6%	52.2%	97.1%	47.9%	80.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	73.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	72.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	67.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗