KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

80%

52%

48%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.5¢Risks 72.50u

HRESNO 27.5¢Risks 27.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.50u · HRES −27.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	35.2%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	72.7%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	2.5%	61.3%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	46.5%	52.1%	24.1%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	54.4%	42.7%	15.6%	—	26.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	67.7%	25.8%	—	23.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	69.2%	76.4%	37.5%	47.6%	37.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	68.8%	—	—	38.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	73.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	72.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	67.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗