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KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
70%
AIFS
62%
EPS
26%
HRES
21%
ICON
19%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 44.4¢Risks 44.40u
VS
ICONNO 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.60u · ICON −55.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:0061.6%26.0%70.2%21.0%18.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:0061.6%26.0%70.2%21.0%18.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0061.6%26.0%70.2%21.0%18.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0061.6%26.0%70.2%21.0%18.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 270%72.4°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single62%71.2°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend55%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%66.8°F4.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES21%64.3°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON19%60.6°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗