KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

62%

26%

21%

19%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

ICONNO 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.60u · ICON −55.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	24.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	60.9%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	1.1%	48.0%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	33.0%	38.2%	14.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	29.1%	8.4%	—	16.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	35.1%	53.0%	15.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	54.0%	62.5%	23.6%	32.3%	23.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	53.3%	—	—	23.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	72.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	71.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	66.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	64.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	60.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗