KCMH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

76%

74%

44%

40%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.7¢Risks 65.65u

EPSNO 34.3¢Risks 34.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.35u · EPS −34.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	86.0%	30.0%	80.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	86.0%	30.0%	80.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	86.0%	30.0%	80.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	86.0%	30.0%	80.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	86.0%	30.0%	80.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	86.0%	38.3%	92.3%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	86.0%	38.3%	92.3%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	86.0%	38.3%	92.3%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	77.3%	38.3%	92.3%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	77.3%	38.3%	92.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	77.3%	40.4%	92.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	77.3%	40.4%	92.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	77.3%	40.4%	92.4%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	77.3%	40.4%	80.6%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	77.3%	40.4%	80.6%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	77.3%	40.4%	80.6%	34.9%	34.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	80.6%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	80.6%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	80.6%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	80.6%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	80.6%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	90.9%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	90.9%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	79.8%	40.4%	90.9%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	74.0%	40.4%	90.9%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	74.0%	40.4%	90.9%	43.8%	75.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	74.0%	40.4%	90.9%	43.8%	75.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	75.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	75.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	72.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	67.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗