KCMH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

76%

74%

44%

40%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.7¢Risks 65.65u

EPSNO 34.3¢Risks 34.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.35u · EPS −34.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	57.2%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	3.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	7.5%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	7.2%	55.4%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	66.4%	24.1%	11.9%	—	30.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	76.3%	68.3%	41.3%	60.1%	43.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	68.0%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	75.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	75.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	72.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	67.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗